The fall 2021 Toronto real estate market is going to be one of the most interesting and exciting times we’ve seen in many years. All eyes are already on pricing, trends, and what buyers and sellers are doing. So how will that shape up in the cooler months ahead of us? Let’s take a look.
Summer Real Estate Trends – A Recap
As we sit in the middle of July and read the real estate headlines, it’s hard to tell where things sit. Is the market plummeting? Is the market soaring? It is a record-setting summer? Yes to all, if you believe what you read.
A quick Google search tells us “Prices & Sales Hit Records”, and at the same time the next headline reads “The Real Estate Market Continues to Slow”. How are you supposed to get a sense of what is actually happening? You break down the numbers.
The June numbers tell us a few key things:
- Semis & Row Homes: pricing is still on the rise and continues to be at a steady pace. The number of transactions is slightly lower than the previous month, yet average days on the market are still at less than two weeks.
- Detached Homes: the year over year sales price is still creeping upwards, as buyers know what they want and are paying for it. Sellers are holding strong for their ask price and with an average of only 10 days on the market for $2 Million + homes, the market is moving in a steady direction. Bidding wars seem to have subsided as buyers tire from the competition and would rather wait than get themselves into a bad situation.
- Condos: Take a look at the number of transactions – nearly 1200 during the month of June. And although the average days on the market are higher than semis and detached homes, they are still moving and pricing is again, holding steady.
- Pre-Construction: this segment of the market has been quiet for the past few months – a direct result of lockdowns and pandemic restrictions. But if the launch of The Mason at Brightwater in Port Credit is an indicator, the pre-con market is just waiting to explode – it sold out within the first few days of launch.
So, what are we going to see once the July numbers come out? I anticipate a slowdown in the number of transactions. Why, you ask? Toronto has finally entered Stage 3 of the re-opening plan and people are LIVING! Restaurants are packed – have you tried to get a reservation anywhere? Booked solid. Yorkville, King West, and the Harbourfront are packed with people.
Pearson airport is getting slightly busier and with the reopening of the border to tourists, we expect Toronto to be pretty empty come August. Not many are thinking about buying or selling as we enter the dog days of summer so don’t be surprised if things dip a bit in July and August. But then comes September…
Fall 2021 Toronto Real Estate Market Predictions
The fall market is going to be a telling one and as we hopefully fully emerge from pandemic restrictions, life will return to what we know as normal. So, what are our Fall 2021 Toronto real estate market predictions? Let’s take a look at each segment and break down what we believe is going to happen.
Semis / Row Homes:
We believe the biggest increase in value and the hottest, most sought-after properties this fall are going to be semi-detached homes.
These types of homes are still at an affordable price point in Toronto. They are much lower than the average detached home and give more space than a typical condo.
At the onset of the pandemic, many, many people moved out of the city. They packed up and booted out of town, thirsty for the out-of-city life as working from home became the norm. But once we start getting back to the office (which will happen in the fall), sporting events start up again, concerts, plays, theatre – all that city life has to offer picks up again, those folks will be back.
Commuting to work isn’t going to be so much fun, even if it’s just a few days a week – hard to get used to when you could hop on the subway and be door to door in 30 min or less, with a coffee in hand.
This segment of the market will see the greatest demand, the highest price increases and dare we say it – perhaps we’ll see those bidding wars start up again.
TRB Tip: If you’re looking at purchasing a semi-detached home in the fall or move back to the city anytime in the latter half of this year, don’t wait – do it now. Start looking because you don’t want to get priced out of the market or beat out by the competition.
If you’ve been keeping your eye on the detached market, you’ll know that pricing continues to soar. The pandemic forced people to need more space, and those that wanted to remain in the city are paying the price that sellers are demanding.
My fall 2021 real estate predictions for this segment in the market point to a slowdown in sales and pricing. I don’t think any detached homeowners have to worry about value decreasing, but sales will slow.
Most families are going to want to be settled before the school year begins and before parents have to go back to the office, even if only for a few days a week.
Don’t get me wrong – we’ll still see lots of action within this segment but gone are the bidding war days, multiple offers, and selling for hundreds of thousands over asking. Buyers will be taking their time and finding the perfect home for them.
Sellers, who are listing, will be holding firm on their price, and getting it. It will be a very similar market to what we are seeing right now.
TRB Tip: if you’re planning to look for a detached home, we suggest waiting until the fall market when there will be more to choose from as beautiful finished homes start to list.
The condo segment is another one that is going to see quite a bit of growth and buyers will be both end-users and investors. As people return to work and the excitement of downtown resumes, condos will be a hot ticket back into the city.
Investors are going to be picking up smaller condos because rental demand is going to be huge. We’re seeing it already in the summer months. Rentals going for over asking, multiple bids, and even bidding wars. Smart investors are jumping on good opportunities for well-maintained suites in some of the hottest and most desirable neighbourhoods in the city.
TRB Tip: if you’re looking for an investment condo, consider an Assignment Sale for a building that’s getting ready to occupy, or has recently occupied. Renters are going to be picky so having a brand-new suite will give you an advantage and put your condo above the competition.
TRB Tip: condo buyers – start looking now. Get yourself into a condo before the market floods with buyers in the fall. You’ll have your new home lined up and secured while the rest scramble.
The pre-con market is a major part of our Fall 2021 Toronto real estate market predictions because it’s one segment that’s just waiting to burst.
Many developers hit the pause button on launching projects because of the pandemic. But they’re getting ready to go, so the fall selling season is going to be wild.
Recently Brightwater launched The Mason, a condo building that was part of the third phase of releases, and within the week, it was 100% sold out. If this is any indicator, the big launches that promise to be above average investments are going to go faster than anyone can predict.
TRB Tip: Register with a VIP Prestige Broker that can get you into the best projects. At TRB we only work with projects we believe in, and that will make you money – if you’re an end-user, investor, or both.
TRB Tip: Get your deposit money organized and be ready to jump. Have an idea about bedrooms, parking, locker, floor plans, etc. – the best thing you can do is educate yourself and team up with a broker who can get you in first (us!).
So, needless to say, the fall 2021 Toronto real estate predictions tell us the selling season is going to be a wild one. It’s going to be beneficial for sellers, buyers, and investors. It won’t be a crazy bidding-war type of market but that, to us, is beneficial to both buyers and sellers.
If you’re looking for more information on selling and when the right time is, or buying and wondering when to look, contact TRB anytime. Our team of experts can help with buying, selling and investing, and show you the numbers that make sense.