The October 2023 Toronto real estate numbers are in, so it’s time to take a deep dive into what they really mean, rather than leaning on the many misleading headlines that are out there. It’s always a good idea to read beyond the headlines because the numbers always show the real picture.
The Overall Market
One of the top questions I get from many new clients is “What kind of market are we in, and how long it will it last?”
We’re currently sitting in a pretty solid buyer’s market, and that’s obvious when we look at the number of listings on the market year over year in each market segment.
But pricing in the detached and semi-detached markets are all up, meaning there are plenty of buyers out there, but they are definitely taking their time to submit offers. What’s the hurry when you have SO much inventory to look at?!
We’re also seeing sellers hold off for their market price, and in both of those segments, we see both year-over-year and month-over-month increases. Things are happening!
Many headlines will have you thinking the market is stalled, nothing is happening and it’s sluggish overall. But is that actually the case? Or is this truly what a balanced real estate market should look like?
Homes priced fair at market value, plenty of inventory for buyers to look at, and a no-pressure situation forcing people and prices to act out of the norm. To me, that sounds like a dream for both buyers and sellers! So why does everyone want you to actually think differently??
Now let’s get into how long this is going to last. In my opinion, not that long, but we do still have some time to enjoy this balanced market.
This buyer’s market is going to come to a screeching halt once that first rate decrease is announced – likely Q2 of 2024.
But have caution when making your moves. If you’re going to wait until rates come down to get into the market, you need to prepare to pay more for a home than you would today. Remember my analysis from last month – I can’t stress this enough – paying a bit more monthly now is going to save you a lot of money versus paying an extra $100,000 to $200,000 for the same home at the height of the future “lower rate” market that’s in the pipeline.
Toronto Condos
Let’s begin with the Toronto Condo segment, and first examine some of the stats that aren’t widely reported.
Year-Over-Year Quantity Sold: is pretty much unchanged with 524 suites sold Oct 2022 and 526 suites sold in Oct 2023
Year-Over-Year New Listings: up 48.3%
Year-Over-Year Days on the Market: 25 days, up from 20 days
Year-Over-Year Pricing: down 5%
But with that said, many are thinking about making that move – I say thinking as they are hesitant to make the move before they sell their current condo to see how much equity they have to work with.
The interesting thing is that this is causing a hamster wheel in the market. Condo owners that are looking to make the move up are listing their suites before they buy, which means that are a little firmer on their price which is causing the number of new listings to rise and the days on the market to go up.
This also means they are not buying until they have a firm offer at a price they want, which then spills over to the other segments having longer days on the market and drops in quantity sold.
That wheel, in this segment particularly, keeps going and going and is the driving force behind the numbers we’re seeing here.
My Advice for Buyers: it’s definitely a good time to be a buyer, especially in the condo segment. If you are waiting for rates to “get better” you are going to miss your opportunity to save on your purchase price and you’ll also risk getting into bidding wars again once rates go down.
Don’t let short-term thinking cloud your judgment. Think long-term and look at the historical data. After periods like this, historically, we’ve seen huge jumps in values, so you’ll want to be on the right side of history this time.
My Advice for Sellers: if you are selling to move up into a bigger condo, a semi or a detached home, think about how much you’ll be saving on it by buying now. If you are saving significantly more than what you feel you are leaving on the table selling your condo right now, you are ahead.
But if you are selling because you are worried about the market, DON’T…like I said above, historically we’ve seen huge jumps in values following periods similar to this and those jumps are coming.
October 2023 Toronto Real Estate: Semi-Detached and Row Homes
Let’s take a look at some of those other important stats here when we analyze the numbers.
Year-Over-Year Quantity Sold: pretty much unchanged with 171 suites sold Oct 2022 and 172 suites sold in Oct 2023
Year-Over-Year New Listings: up 59.1%
Year-Over-Year Days On the Market: 20 days, up from 13 days
Year-Over-Year Pricing: up 4%
This segment, similar to condos, is seeing a lot of movement, particularly due to buyers selling so they can move into a larger home – either another semi or a detached home. But many are taking their time – both with selling and buying.
Sellers are holding off for their market value pricing and aren’t fire-selling, as they know they can wait to sell before buying. That’s the luxury with so much inventory on the market. Combine that with no competition, no bidding wars and high days on the market, buyers can look and take their chances by waiting until their home sells.
This no-fear or pressure is optimal for the majority of buyers.
My Advice for Buyers: With the strong buyer’s market at hand, now is the time to buy and get into the market. This segment will see the biggest jump in demand the minute rates come down, which means prices will go up. But an even scarier thing is that we’ll see the return of bidding wars, pressure buying and limited time to make decisions – no one wants to be in the midst of this, so you need to seriously consider getting into the market now.
My Advice for Sellers: Patience is key to selling in this kind of market. The demand is there but buyers are taking their time. If you’re selling, think about the upside your next purchase will have and consider that when looking at offers.
I’d also recommend making those small improvements to your home as buyers, now more than ever are noticing all of the little things that can make or break a sale.
October 2023 Toronto Real Estate: Detached Homes
Here are the additional stats I looked at within this segment for my analysis of the October 2023 Toronto Real Estate numbers.
Year-Over-Year Quantity Sold: down 6.2%
Year-Over-Year New Listings: up 34.2%
Year-Over-Year Days On the Market: unchanged at 18 days.
Year-Over-Year Pricing: up 10%
This segment continues to enjoy strong year-over-year price appreciation as sellers in this segment can sit and wait for their price and are financially equipped to ride out interest fluctuations.
The steadiness we’re seeing in this segment is a good sign. It’s a good time to take your time and buy. I remember the insanity of this segment not that long ago when detached homes were hard to find, and if you did find one you liked, you’d need to make an offer the same day. Add to that the other 20 buyers looking to do the same, and many found themselves frustrated and out-bid. That’s not the case today.
Many of the new listings are a mixture of downsizers that are now empty nesters, and upsizers that are looking to make the move to the next phase of their lives. Both are, typically, sellers who are firm on their price and buyers who don’t rush into a situation.
My Advice for Buyers: this segment typically sees a slowdown in mid-December – January with buyers pulling their listings off the market to enjoy the holidays. If you see a home, you like now could be the time to make a move as we won’t know what the market will have in store for us in the new year.
You’ve got a few weeks to look and if you don’t find what you love, I’d hit pause, enjoy the holidays and start again in mid-January when listings pick up again.
My Advice for Sellers: Again, patience is key here in this segment. Demand is slightly down but buyers are out there and willing to pay market value for the right house. But it’s going to take some time. Remember – a normal market is anywhere between 3 to 4 weeks to sell a home.
What we experienced in the past is NOT normal. Homes selling within days or even hours is not typical, so adjust your expectations to what a healthy market is and you’ll be happy when you do in fact sell your home for the right price.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing and want to discuss strategies, pricing, timing, or anything else, simply complete my form on this page so I can get in touch right away. I’d be happy to answer any questions about the October 2023 Toronto real estate numbers you have or about the Toronto market in general.
~Romey Halabi
Founder & Lead Broker, Toronto Realty Boutique
416-999-1240
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