Reopening Toronto and the impact on the real estate market – something we’re getting asked about nearly every day and for good reason. It’s an important question that everyone either currently in the market or thinking about getting into the market should have on their mind.
We’re certain we’re not the only ones who have June 14th circled on our calendars. Ready to make those patio restaurant bookings – with four people at a table. Visit the shops we love – at 15% capacity. And spend times outdoors with friends – if we haven’t already. It’s something, right?
Ontario Reopening Plan 2021
Roadmap to Reopen outlines three steps to easing public health measures, guided by the following principles:
- Step One: An initial focus on resuming outdoor activities with smaller crowds where the risk of transmission is lower and permitting retail with restrictions. This includes allowing outdoor gatherings of up to 10 people, outdoor dining with up to four people per table, and non-essential retail at 15 percent capacity.
- Step Two: Further expanding outdoor activities and resuming limited indoor services with small numbers of people where face coverings are worn. This includes outdoor gatherings of up to 25 people, outdoor sports and leagues, overnight camps, personal care services where face coverings can be worn and with capacity limits, as well as indoor religious services, rites, or ceremony gatherings at 15 percent capacity.
- Step Three: Expanding access to indoor settings, with restrictions, including where there are larger numbers of people and where face coverings can’t always be worn. This includes indoor sports and recreational fitness; indoor dining, museums, art galleries and libraries, and casinos and bingo halls, with capacity limits.
The province will remain in each step for at least 21 days to evaluate any impacts on key public health and health system indicators. If at the end of the 21 days, the following vaccination thresholds have been met, along with positive trends in other key public health and health system indicators, then the province will move to the next step:
- Step 1:60 percent of adults vaccinated with one dose.
- Step 2:70 percent of adults vaccinated with one dose and 20 percent vaccinated with two doses.
- Step 3:70 to 80 percent of adults vaccinated with one dose and 25 percent vaccinated with two doses.
Based on current trends in key health indicators, including the provincial vaccination rate, the government expects to enter Step One of the Roadmap the week of June 14, 2021. The province will confirm closer to the expected start of Step One.
So, by the looks of this, and with all things going right, by the beginning of August, we should be back to as close to “normal” as we can be for the summer months.
Reopening Toronto & The Real Estate Market
What does the Toronto reopening mean for the real estate market? Although we won’t be experiencing the joys of Phase 3 until early August, the market is going to experience a few things beginning very soon.
Overall, we are predicting a bit of a slowdown – nothing too crazy – the market isn’t going to be coming to a screeching halt, but we promise that you’re going to see things change.
Gone will be the crazy bidding wars with 10+ bids. Gone will be the 100+ showings in a 5-day period. Gone will be the panicked buyers feeling the stress over getting their dream home. Sellers will become more patient and not feel anxiety for not selling in 24-hours.
Why, you ask? Because people will be far too busy LIVING and having fun to worry about real estate.
Let’s dive a bit deeper into the various segments and see how Toronto’s reopening is going to impact the real estate market.
Detached & Semi-Detached Homes
We predict a bit of a correction in this market over the summer months. Families will be spending time with their friends. Family reunions in the backyard will be heard among the neighbourhoods and backyard barbeques will be here to stay.
Not many folks who are comfortable in their homes are going to pick now to put up that for sale sign or pack up their home. They’ll be far too busy enjoying the things they’ve missed to be worrying about what’s happening next. Perhaps where the next get-together is, but that will be the extent of it.
And that’s if families even remain in Toronto for the summer! All those vacations that have been planned while at home – they’re about to come to fruition. Bookings and flights will be reserved and a mass exodus out of Toronto is about to happen once travel restrictions are lifted.
BUT. Once the summer winds down and the sun starts to set a bit earlier, the thoughts of selling, moving and buying are going to start creeping up again.
Remember all of those improvements that were made over the past 18 months of lockdown? Ya, they’re about to pay off in a big way.
The Fall Market is going to be one of the hottest we’ve seen in a long time. Record-breaking? We wouldn’t doubt it.
So, although there may be a slight pause, it’s only for a short time. Realtors – take a breath this summer while you can.
The Toronto Condo Market
Remember all of those people that left the downtown core when lockdown started with dreams of never returning to the office again? Well, they’ll be back and in fact, they’re starting to come back already.
The Toronto condo market just saw its second-best start of the year on record. Ever. More transactions, higher prices, and faster listing times all contributed to a very solid start of 2021.
All those empty office towers in downtown Toronto won’t be that way for long. Do you really think that the massive corporations that have multi-multi-year leases are going to let those offices sit empty?
Young professionals who are just getting into the corporate world are going to be thirsty for that lifestyle they’ve missed for nearly two years. Walking to work, after-work drinks, and being a part of the vibrant downtown lifestyle is going to create quite a bit of FOMO and honestly, no one is going to want to miss out.
That means that condo purchases are going to continue to rise and rents will experience the same demand. It’s already happening and we’re going to see more of it as the province works towards reopening and getting to what our “new normal” will look like.
And let’s not forget about the pre-construction market! We know firsthand from many developers that they have no intention of slowing down because of the hot demand. Launches are being scheduled so it’s time to do your research! Our top pick can be found on our Pre-Construction featured listings page.
So, as you’re getting ready to celebrate a season of freedom, don’t fret if you see some jarring headlines in the news about Reopening Toronto and the Real Estate Market, or hear about a slight slow in the market. The Fall selling season will be primed for those looking to sell and those who are looking to buy will have plenty to choose from.