September 2024 Toronto Real Estate Market Update
So what’s really happening in Toronto real estate right now? The Fall Market is in full swing, and homes are being bought and sold each day. But one thing is certain – it’s taking a lot of time. Buyers have SO much to look at, and sellers are not budging on pricing, so it’s a bit of a stalemate on who’s going to give what.
EXCEPT if you’re selling a detached home between $1.2 Million and $1.5 Million – this small segment of the market is on fire. We’re seeing multiple offers, bidding wars, bully offers – you’d think we’re back in 2021. It looks like the new mortgage rules stimulated some of these buyers and they’re running off the sidelines.
September Market Stats: Detached Homes
Let’s also look at some of the important numbers that aren’t typically reported monthly.
New Listings were up, year over year in September by 21.6%
The Quantity Sold year over year was up by 28.7%
The average price of a detached home year over year was down by 3%
Days on the market, year over year were up from 15 days to 21 days.
Days on the market, month over month were down from 31 to 21 days.
First, let’s examine the big trends here – there are more homes available, they are selling faster than last month, and the average price is slightly down.
What we can take from this is that sellers in this segment are becoming more motivated to sell, taking perhaps a bit lower than the list price. And with transactions being up nearly 30%, we can see that there is a lot more activity happening in the Detached segment.
Currently, there are 887 Detached Homes for sale in Toronto-Proper, which is the area I focus on for all of my numbers and analysis. This gives us 3.95 months of inventory in this segment.
When months of inventory are low (2 or lower), the market is usually in sellers’ territory. When months of inventory are high (4 or higher), the market is generally in buyers’ territory. Months of inventory between 2 and 4 are typically considered “balanced”.
I believe that sellers are starting to realize that the market dictates value. Your home is only worth what buyers are willing to pay. It’s not about what it was worth a few years ago, or what your breakeven point is. It’s all about what the value is to the buyer making the offer. If that matches up to the market value of your home, it’s time to accept.
One of the biggest strategies I teach my clients is that you make money on the buy, not the sell. Don’t get caught up in the $30k less you’re getting for your home now – focus on the $200k you’ll be saving on your purchase.
Semi-Detached & Row Homes
Let’s continue to look at some of the important numbers that aren’t typically reported monthly.
New Listings were down, year over year in September by 0.2%
The Quantity Sold year over year was up by 4.5%
The average price of a semi-detached / row home year over year was up by 2%
Days on the market, year over year were up from 10 days to 16 days.
Days on the market, month over month were down from 20 to 16 days.
I’m surprised with the numbers and the trends in this segment as it’s usually the first one to react to any type of interest rate or mortgage news. But what we’re seeing here is that we’re essentially flat to 2023.
I think what’s happening here goes back to how hot the lower-priced detached homes segment is. Many buyers have time to do their research and are really examining what they can get for their money. And if you can get a detached home for around the same price as the average semi, I bet buyers are going to be trying to get one of those sought-after detached homes before looking at other options.
Now let’s look at the inventory here in this segment as we did for Detached Homes.
Currently, there are 427 semi/row homes listed for sale in Toronto-Proper. This gives us approximately 3.05 months of inventory, putting us well into a balanced market.
Do you see what’s happening here – the tide is slowly shifting in both segments I’ve covered above. What does that mean – buyers need to get moving before it’s too late.
Toronto Condos
New Listings were up, year over year in September by 4%
The Quantity Sold year over year was down by 0.2% (yes the same as semis)
The average price of a condo year over year was down by 1%
Days on the market, year over year were up from 23 days to 33 days.
Days on the market, month over month were up from 26 to 33 days.
From a numbers perspective, we’re very similar to the semi-detached and row home market, where things are looking pretty flat to 2023.
But the big story here is inventory, which has been the trend over the last several months.
As of today, there are 3,909 condos for sale in Toronto-Proper. This is a huge amount and gives us 7.8 months of condo inventory, putting us deep into buyer’s market territory.
The major issue within the condo segment is not plummeting pricing, as pricing has remained somewhat flat all year. Looking back from January to September numbers, we see a consistent number of sold properties each month.
The obvious issue within this segment is the sheer volume of listings available. There simply aren’t enough buyers to absorb the quantity of condos for sale, and that’s why we’re going to be in this buyer territory for quite some time.
But those dabbling their toes into considering purchasing a condo should see this as a HUGE opportunity. There is so much inventory that you’re bound to find something you love that falls within your budget. If you’re out there thinking a huge drop in pricing is on the horizon, you’re simply incorrect and the numbers thus far this year prove that.
I’m telling my investor clients that now is the time and they’re starting to see that opportunity. So are my other condo end-user clients.
Once we see the next rate cut in October, I’m willing to bet we’ll see things pick up in this segment. Not enough to turn around the inventory challenges, but enough to create some pretty incredible opportunities in the condo market.
Working with TRB
Now besides crunching all of these numbers for my clients – you may or may not know (but hopefully you do) that I help many clients buy and sell real estate daily. I am the Founder and Lead Broker of Toronto Realty Boutique and I specialize in listing homes and condos, representing buyers of all budgets, I also do a lot of work in the Toronto pre-construction market.
You can check out some of my featured listings that are currently active here:
Toronto Realty Boutique Listings – Homes & Condos for Sale
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing and want to discuss strategies, pricing, timing, or anything else, simply complete my form on this page so I can get in touch right away. I’d be happy to answer any questions about the September 2024 Toronto real estate numbers you have or about the Toronto market in general.
~Romey Halabi
Founder & Lead Broker, Toronto Realty Boutique
416-999-1240
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