What the February Numbers Really Tell Us
We’re now well into the first quarter of 2026, and the Toronto real estate market is beginning to show some important — and very telling — shifts.
Most of the conversations I’m having right now revolve around the same questions:
- Is now the right time to buy?
- Have prices finally bottomed out?
- When will the market pick up again?
- And what will interest rates do this year?
The reality is this:
The Toronto market is not moving in one direction right now.
What we’re seeing instead is segmented behaviour — and understanding that is where the real opportunity lies.
- Condos are stabilizing
- Semi-detached homes are moving quickly
- Detached homes are seeing increased activity — even while pricing adjusts
Let’s break down what’s actually happening beneath the headlines.
Interest Rates: Why the Headlines Miss the Point
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate steady this week — exactly what most economists expected.
But here’s what matters:
Rate holds like this don’t change the market overnight.
What does change the market is confidence.
And right now, confidence is quietly returning.
Buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines are starting to re-enter the market — and when the right property comes up, they’re acting decisively.
The takeaway:
The story isn’t the rate itself.
It’s how buyers are already responding to where rates are heading.
The New Bidding Wars (Spring 2026)
One of the most important shifts I’ve seen over the past few weeks is how bidding wars are actually playing out.
This is not 2021-style chaos.
Today’s market looks very different.
There is a highly active pocket of demand focused on:
Freehold homes between $1.2M and $1.5M
Homes in this range are:
- Selling within days
- Attracting multiple buyers
- Trading close to (or slightly above) market value
But here’s the key difference:
These aren’t driven by irrational overbidding — they’re driven by speed.
Serious buyers are watching closely… and when the right property hits the market, they move immediately.
What We’re Seeing in March (So Far):
- Newly listed freeholds averaging 110% of list price within ~5 days
- Overall freehold sales averaging 104% of list price
Demand is strong — but it’s now targeted and selective.
“Where Do You Stand in Today’s Market?”
TRB Move Meter
February 2026 Market Breakdown
Condo Market: Early Signs of Stability
February showed meaningful improvement in the condo segment:
- Sold for 97% of list price
- Days on market improved from 56 → 42 days
- Prices increased 6.8% month-over-month
- Sales volume rose while new listings slightly declined
What this tells us: The condo market is beginning to stabilize — and activity is returning.
For sellers:
This is the first sign of a potential floor forming.
For buyers (especially first-time buyers):
This may be one of the best entry windows we’ve seen in the past 12–18 months.
Semi-Detached Homes: The Leading Indicator
The semi-detached segment continues to move first — as it often does when markets shift.
February numbers:
- 107% of list price (on average)
- 25 days on market
- Sales up 69% month-over-month
This is one of the clearest signals in today’s market: Buyers are coming back — and they’re acting.
But there’s an important nuance here: This isn’t being driven by aggressive underpricing. It’s being driven by accurate pricing.
Homes priced close to market value are attracting serious buyers quickly.
Buyer strategy has changed as well:
The “wait and lowball” approach is no longer effective in this segment.
Detached Homes: The Misleading Headline
Detached homes are showing improving activity:
- Selling at 100% of list price (on average)
- 25 days on market
- Sales volume increasing month-over-month
You may have seen headlines pointing to an 18% year-over-year price decline. But this is where context matters.
February 2025 included several ultra-luxury sales that heavily skewed the data:
- One sale at $27.3M
- Another at $16.2M
- Two more over $11M
When those outliers are removed, the actual year-over-year decline is closer to 6.1%
That’s a dramatically different story — and a much more accurate reflection of the market.
What I’m Watching Right Now
As we move deeper into the spring market, there are three key indicators I’m paying close attention to:
1. Inventory Levels
Will new listings increase — and how quickly?
2. Buyer Activity in the $1.2M–$1.5M Range
This segment is currently driving momentum.
3. Condo Absorption
Are first-time buyers continuing to re-enter the market?
These three factors will largely determine where the market heads over the next few months.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
This is not a “wait and see” market anymore.
It’s a positioning market.
- Buyers who understand where demand is strongest are winning
- Sellers who price strategically are moving quickly
- And those relying on outdated expectations are falling behind
Thinking About Making a Move?
One thing I’ve been hearing consistently from homeowners lately:
“I didn’t realize how much values have shifted.”
If you’re even considering selling — whether that’s now or in the next 12–24 months — understanding your position today is critical.
You can start here:
Or, if you’re planning a purchase this year and want to understand where the real opportunities are, reach out directly — I’m happy to walk you through what we’re seeing in real time.
Romey Halabi
Broker, Toronto Realty Boutique
416.999.1240
info@torontorealtyboutique.com
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