Toronto Real Estate predictions – something we’re getting asked about quite frequently as the market’s pace picks back up again. The market was like a roller coaster during the first half of the year – that’s pretty much the best way we can sum it up. There were major highs and major lows, but we’re starting to come out of the other side and things are looking strong for Q3 and Q4.
Many of our client conversations centre around what is going to happen in the coming months, so we wanted to share our thoughts and predictions. The media headlines are literally all over the spectrum of the sky is falling to the market is stronger than ever. It’s hard to determine what’s REALLY happening unless you’re on the ground working with other brokers, buyers, sellers, investors, developers, mortgage brokers, lawyers and even industry photographers (if these guys are busy, that’s always a good sign). This is my daily network and I’m in constant contact with all of the key industry folks. Ear to the ground, pounding pavement.
So, let’s get to it.
Pre-Construction Condos in Toronto
What are our Toronto real estate predictions for pre-construction? There were a number of major pre-construction launches that were postponed due to COVID-19 and the big question is when are they going to launch? And how?
We don’t think the developers that had major launches planned for 2020 are just going to accept that they have to wait. Trust me, they’re strategizing and planning ways to get projects out to the brokers to sell. Because the demand is there.
Many realtors question if there will be any launches at all in 2020, and many are placing their bets on no. They’re quite wrong and here is why:
Warehouse Lofts Launching June 18th with in-person event for VIP Brokers. My attendance is confirmed, and I’ve been notified of their social distancing and safety measures that will be in place. More info here.
28 Eastern Condos is scheduled to launch in July. Details are pending of the actual execution of the event for VIP Brokers, but it’s looks to be on. More info here.
XO 2 Condos is looking like it will be launching in August, if not, the early fall. It’s definitely not cancelled or postponed as the developer and sales teams are eager to sell due to the success of XO Condos, which is already in development. More info here.
Empire Quay House is scheduled for an August launch to the broker community. Another developer with a very strategic sales team who knows the demand is there for their product. More info here.
Brightwater Communities will launch their first building in September, starting the fall selling season with a massive bang in Port Credit. More info here.
Is all of this set-in stone? Of course not – we’ve got the potential for a second wave of COVID-19 in the backs of our minds, as do the developers and sales teams, but as things stand now, it’s going to be a VERY busy summer for the pre-construction market.
May Toronto Real Estate Stats – What Do They Say?
Resale home listings dropped 53.1 per cent annually last month, almost in lock-step with a 54 per cent reduction in sales in May, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Makes sense? Absolutely – drop in listings = drop in sales. No product to move mean less product being sold. Scary – no. The number of new listings rose 47.5 per cent on a month-over-month basis, said the real estate board, meaning April was a VERY slow month, but May indicators are all pointing in a very positive direction.
“With home sales and new listings continuing to trend in unison in May, market conditions remained balanced,” said TRREB’s chief market analyst Jason Mercer, citing year-over-year growth slightly above the Bank of Canada’s long-term target for inflation.
“If current market conditions are sustained during the gradual reopening of the GTA economy, a moderate pace of year-over-year price growth could continue as we move through the spring and summer months,” said Mercer.
Selling in the Summer and Fall Market
Our Toronto real estate predictions indicate that the summer months are expected to be a bit slower as they usually are at this time of year. Those that missed the spring market and want to sell before the fall will be listing, and won’t face as much competition as during the September and October months.
Those looking to sell in the fall can focus on making their homes or condos look outstanding – doing repairs while spending time at home will be on the top of many seller’s lists. It’s a good time to focus on landscaping, curb appeal, fresh paint and some easy kitchen and bathroom upgrades. Things that will catch the eye of potential buyers in the fall, because the competition will be there.
Selling in the fall in going to be crowded – think of all those sellers that missed the prime Spring season and are now waiting for the fall. It’s like having twice the amount of competition so if you’re considering selling in the fall, you should focus on making sure your home shines. An alternative is to get a jump on the market and look at August as a listing target.
With nearly all of Ontario staying put this summer, the audience will be there earlier than in September – no European vacations in August that typically empty out the city.
For the condo market, we’ll begin to see many more listings for sale as buildings begin to allow showings once again. Although technically they’re not permitted to ban showings, many buildings have put strict rules in place and are not allowing any showings at all.
We’ll also see a lot of the amenity spaces open up again in condo buildings, making their offering even more appealing to potential buyers.
Buying in the Summer and Fall Market
The Bank of Canada has announced interest rates are holding where they’re at – and they’re low. It looks like it will remain that way for some time so setting yourself up with a pre-approval should be your first step. Your buying power may be more than you think.
If you’re in the position to buy and have been looking, we suggest not holding off until the fall, and starting your search soon. Our Toronto real estate predictions point to pricing holding steady or slightly increasing – they’re not going to come down, as some of the trends predict, so being open to looking through the summer will put you at an advantage.
With the influx of listings predicted for the fall, there will be the same influx of buyers who are looking to wait for more options. This means more competition for your bids and offers. You don’t need to be in a hurry and make quick decisions during the summer months, but if you’re open, you may just find exactly what you’re looking for without the chance of a bidding war.
Perhaps this is also a time to reconsider where you currently live – with many offices moving several people to permanent work-from-home status, maybe this is your opportunity to look in different neighbourhoods you’ve had your eye on, or even outside of the city in popular spots like Port Credit.
Renters & First-Time Buyers: Watch the Winter Real Estate Market
If you’re currently renting and thinking about making the move to ownership, and want to live in the downtown core, or are a first-time buyer moving into your first place on your own, I strongly recommend paying attention to the downtown condo market come the end of 2020.
With the uncertainty around Airbnb, there may be an influx of inventory in the core coming from those looking to dump their condo they purchased specifically for short term rentals. This will hold true only for certain buildings that will put restrictions on Airbnb or perhaps ban them all together.
These units are typically smaller entry level suites, which would be perfect for a first-time buyer or a renter transitioning into ownership.
Now no one has a crystal ball when it comes to Toronto real estate predictions, and we can’t confidently predict that COVID-19 won’t hit us again, but if things continue as they have been, numbers decrease and we slowly get back to the new normal, the real estate market will continue to perform positively. For those looking to get into the market, sell their current home and those looking to invest, the remainder of 2020 is something to keep your eye on.
If you’re looking for more information on our pre-construction picks, or information about our buying and selling strategies that have served our clients well, simply fill out the form below and we’ll get in touch right away.